Zone 3- Micro Analysis- Nicaragua- Another Regressing Latin American Democracy? W # 90

Week # 90, Dated 17th-24th Oct. 09’

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's allies in the Supreme Court lifted a ban on reelection last week, raising fears that Nicaragua might return to the kind of entrenched power that Ortega took up arms to defeat in 1979. He led the 1979 Sandinista uprising that ousted the regime of US-backed dictator Anastasio Somoza, after 45 years of oppressive rule.

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On 19th Oct. the nation's Supreme Court said a ban on presidents and vice presidents’ seeking a second term was "unenforceable." Nicaragua's constitution, amended since 1995, allows only one presidential term at a time and a maximum of two non-consecutive terms. Ortega, who served as president from 1985-1990, recently returned to power in 2006 after a 16 year hiatus.

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Many are terming the unfolding events as a constitutional coup. Unable to get the 56 legislative votes needed to reverse the reelection ban – and believed to be too unpopular to muster enough support for a popular referendum as leftist ally Hugo Chavez has done in Venezuela, Ortega Instead took his petition to lift a ban on consecutive terms to six pro-Sandinista judges who make up the constitutional branch of the Nicaraguan Supreme Court. They agreed with his argument that the prohibition on a second term violated his rights.

Internationally the United States has strongly condemned the development in Nicaragua. The US Sen. John Kerry (D) Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said Ortega's "manipulation" of the Supreme Court "reeks of the authoritarianism of the past." He accused the Sandinista leader of "following the cues of the coup-plotters in Honduras."

According to the Nicaraguan M&R Consultores poll maker, 68.3 % of the Nicaraguans think that the presidential reelection "tends to weaken democracy and to restore a dictatorship," only 23.6 % think that the reelection "contributes to strengthening democracy," and 8.1 % said they do not know about the issue.
Also 71.3 % of the respondents think Ortega does not "deserve" to continue another presidential term, while 24.6 % think the contrary, and 4.1 % said they do not know.

Lately there have been guerrilla-style protests from a growing underground movement against the Sandinista government of Nicaragua. It’s a new trend of civil disobedience that has largely been driven underground by what Human Rights activists’ term as Sandinista repression on the streets. Even non-violent human rights leaders such as Gonzalo Carrión, of the Nicaraguan Center for Human Rights, are defending the peoples' "legitimate right to use all resources available to defend their liberty and country."

"We are now living under a strong and very original dictatorship," said constitutional analyst and retired Judge Sergio Garcia Quintero. "And we are quickly approaching a tyranny, where Ortega is no longer interested in even projecting the image of a democracy with a separation of powers."

One analyst notes that The Bolivarian block comprising Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela has made reelection its leaders’ priority. They range from “some like Hugo Chávez, who call popular referendums—and repeat them until the desired result is achieved—to Daniel Ortega, who has benefited from court decisions. Colombia’s Álvaro Uribe, for his part, is doing everything possible to extend his term, and others, like the Kirchners in Argentina, keep it all within their marriage.”
The broad consensus among analysts remains that in the Latin American region leaders who circumvent term limits are undermining the region's democratic progress.

Discussion Questions:

· Given the observed trend of power grabbing through presidential term limit extensions, do you think Latin America is adopting a new dictatorial trend in Democratic garb?

· Is the US sending out mixed signals—where it supported Zelaya against the Honduran preemptive Coup at his bid to seek reelection, while strongly condemning Ortega’s ‘Constitutional Coup’ for the same end?

Sources/ Related links-
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h-AFgS8LitQDCTBhuIlCWLuSCNDw
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/1027/p90s01-woam.html
http://www.impre.com/laopinion/opinion/2009/10/27/victory-for-democracy-155897-1.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-termlimits26-2009oct26,0,6790603.story?track=rss
http://insidecostarica.com/dailynews/2009/october/24/centam-091024-03.htm
http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/1026
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/oct/130875.htm
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/nu.html _______________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary Week # 90

W# 90- Dated 17th – 24th Oct. 09’

POLITICAL FRONT

The U.S will soon be going for another population census, a decade event that counts the number of legal American citizens. Meanwhile some Republicans have cautioned that the next census should add citizenship questions that will help filter illegal from legal citizens and will help reduce more U.S spending on illegal immigrants. However civil right and Latino groups have questioned the essence of such citizenship rules while questioning its potential to inflame anti-immigration frenzy in next elections.
Senator John Kerry is moving to another level of his political career as he has become a broad based adviser to president Obama on both domestic and foreign issues.
Two polls on Thursday put Canada's governing Conservatives well ahead of their nearest opposition, but one showed their support slipping back from what they would need to form a majority government. The Ekos polling firm said the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, were 11.2 % points ahead of the second-place Liberals in popular support. A week ago, it showed a 15-point advantage.
A French prosecutor recommended Tuesday that former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin be convicted for his alleged role in a smear campaign against President Nicolas Sarkozy, arguing he should have put an end to rumours swirling about his rival. Prosecutor Jean-Claude Marin called for an 18-month suspended sentence and a fine of euro 45,000 ($67,370) for Villepin, one of several defendants in the complex slander trial that has rocked the country's political establishment.
According to a poll conducted by YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph after the controversial BBC debate including Nick Griffin a member of the far right British National Party, nearly a quarter of adults would consider voting for them.
The Germans have finally given their mandates to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats giving her a second term along with their Bavarian-only sister party Christian Social Union and the pro-business Free Democrats forming a new coalition government. The newly formed government aims at overhauling the country's health care system, an increase in child subsidies and future tax cuts.
Political tension in Honduras continues as parties deliberating political peace in the country have yet again failed to reach a conclusion.
According to Luis Vicente Leon a pollster based in Caracas, Venezuela Hugo Chavez’s popularity has slid in monthly tracking polls from a high of 61 % after winning a vote in February to 52.8 % last month.
In the trend involving premiers’ worldwide seeking longer terms in office, following the Honduran episode, Leftist Nicaragua President Daniel Ortega has recently won the right to seek re-election in 2011, though opponents have decried the decision as illegal.
The newly elected Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou believes the economy is on a bad track and his government is willing to redirect the bearing of the economy for the better.

Southeast Europe Politics

Serbian President Boris Tadic said his country will stay clear from interfering in the forthcoming talk between the U.S-EU and Bosnia. Macedonia has acknowledged the sovereignty of the newly created state of Kosovo, paving the way for relieving the tension between the ethnic Albanian-Macedonians and the government within Macedonia and fostering bilateral relations between Kosovo and Macedonia, following the recent settlement of their border dispute. Though a positive development at the governmental level both the opposition in Macedonia and ethnic Albanians in Kosovo have condemned the border settlement as giving out more than expected.
Recent European Commission’s report shows progress in Macedonia preceding the Macedonia EU integration talks, however many issues remain with EU discouraging a referendum to solving Macedonia-Greece border issue.
As Kosovo prepares for November 15th municipal election, political leaders of major parties announced that their partnership will remain unshaken. The election process is being seen as a major test, following last year's independence declaration.
Political misgiving between the Albanian ruling government and major opposition Socialist party remains unresolved. The latter still rejects the June election’s result and as such will be boycotting the forthcoming November local election. Meanwhile Brussels is seeking early resolution hastening Albania progress for EU integration.
The Romanian National Liberal Party (PNL) introduced a bill to the parliament this week aiming at downsizing parliament to 316 from 471 representatives for the sake of greater representation and reduced government spending.

ECONOMIC FRONT

Obama said last week in his weekly radio and Internet address that Banks should return the favor in the recent controversial taxpayer-financed bailout, by lending more money to small businesses. Although some aspects of the U.S economy are witnessing a recovery yet unemployment remains at a high. The US Congress too under the new Consumer Financial Protection Agency aims at regulating popular financial products like mortgages, credit cards and savings accounts.
Several months back ‘Buy America’ product policy caused a fray between Canada and U.S, now both Canada and Mexico are demanding the WTO to curtail U.S in reversing its policy of Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) rules -- requiring meat sold in U.S. stores to show which country it comes from. According to the two plaintiffs the policy is damaging North American trade. The United States however maintains that labeling requirements are in line with WTO rules.
The UK economy is still plagued by the recession, an issue expected to effect the next election in the country. While cutting tax and reducing the economic tension on most Germans and company owners was one of the major campaign jiggles that returned German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her coalition partner to power.
The Russian president approved aid to Serbia worth billion of dollars that will further tighten the two nations’ ties and pave way for Serbia’s economic recovery.
Powerful financial institutions in Europe have agreed to foster economic and infrastructural development in western Balkan under the auspices of Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF). The main objective of the agreement is to secure grant and credit financing for priority projects in the Western Balkans, particularly in the infrastructure sector. The EIB, the CEB and the EBRD have committed to securing one billion euros in loans for the region.

SOCIAL/HUMANITARIAN FRONT

According to a French media monitoring group, media freedom in the United States has improved during the Obama’s administration, while Iranian press freedom sours particularly in the wake of its recent post election saga. Meanwhile Denmark, Finland and Ireland remain top three media free countries, while Eritrea, North Korea and Turkmenistan stays at the bottom as three most media closed countries.
According to anti-terrorist law London, UK will now have armed policemen, a development that irks the likings of many Londoners.
The Vatican has recently included conservative Anglicans to become Catholics, aggravating doctrinal differences within the sect; however it is criticized for infringing.
The ICJ is trying former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic who is insisting that Holbrooke promised him in 1996 that the UN tribunal would leave him alone if he resigned from power. Croatia too arrested seven war crime suspects who are due to be tried. The UN too is demanding that Serbia capture and deliver the two remaining war crimes fugitives Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic to its tribunal at the earliest.
In Australia a Muslim cleric has been condemned by the government for hate lanced messages sent to families of Australian soldiers deceased in Iraq. The prime minister said he would consider whether Australia's immigration laws should be changed to allow citizenship to be revoked in such cases.
The insinuation of the Australian Treasury Secretary Ken Henry that it might be difficult for the country to shoulder the responsibility of its population come 2049 when the population would have surged from its present 22 million to 35 million was shrugged off by the Prime Minister Kelvin Rudd.

FOOD, ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY FRONT

The world is set for the December Copenhagen, Denmark summit aimed at redrafting a new global climate policy in lieu of Kyoto draft that has faced many setbacks. In the meanwhile in the U.S the Obama administration battles with certain elements of the country, condemning his plan to combat global warming, based on economic arguments.
The IAEA hopes that Iran will finally concur with the recent draft on its nuclear programme which seems to enjoy greater acceptance by all stake holders.
According to the World Health Organization, Swine flu is now responsible for 5000 deaths. Despite the development of vaccines acute shortage is still an issue.
Keeping pace with the demand of the global climate, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay have agreed to establish protected zones in the vast Atlantic Forest as part of an effort to halt deforestation by 2020.
The Serbian government intervened in northern Kosovo, a Serb dominated area, as the region lacked electricity for many months, a development the Kosovo government said was due to lack of electricity bill payment.

GEO-STRATEGIC FRONT

The latest development in the protracted visa issue between Canada and Czech Republic has drawn warning from the EU threatening retaliatory measures. Checking the massive influx of Czech visitors in the country, Canada has imposed its restrictions.
In the meanwhile the EU and U.S have finalized an agreement on extradition for terror suspects under the condition that the latter will not impose death penalty on suspects extradited from the EU.
The Australian government is eager to chalk out a plan for the withdrawal of its 1550 troops from Afghanistan. However Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Australia would withdraw its forces from Uruzgan, Afghanistan only after training the army brigade, local police and civil administration, meanwhile the opposition has accused the government of planning an early exit from the war torn region.
Albania and Bosnia are part of the Western Balkan countries vying for the EU visa liberalization scheme that will allow Albanians and Bosnians to travel visa-free across Europe. While in the same vein, Turkey recently ended visa fee for Albanian, a development Albanian PM dubbed as lifting of a psychological barrier.
Obama-led government scrapped the protracted missile programme projected for Eastern Europe however according to media report Bulgaria and Romania are two places the Americans might be building their military bases for the revamped plan. The visit of U.S vice president to Romania has triggered this speculation.
Reburying Mother Teresa, born to an ethnic Albanian family in Macedonia, in her native land on the behest of the Albanian government resulted in tension between India and Albania. Leveling down the tempo Albanian government has retracted its request.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary W # 89,

W # 89-Dated 11th – 17th Oct. 09’

SOUTHERN EUROPE
The international watchdog group Human Rights Watch urged the EU on Monday (October 12th) to press Greece's new socialist government into ending the ‘shabby treatment of illegal immigrants’. Also the new 300-seat Greek parliament was sworn in on Wednesday (October 14th) with Prime Minister George Papandreou, whose PASOK party won a convincing victory in the October 4th snap elections.

SOUTHEAST EUROPE
The European Commission (EC) in its annual progress report on the Western Balkans and Turkey says Croatia could wrap up its membership talks in 2010, but the other Balkan countries have more work to do. In the meanwhile the Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced on Friday (October 9th) that a total of 30 states and Kosovo will take part in public hearings on the legality of Pristina's independence this December. Also The European Commission's (EC) progress report on Kosovo noted that Serbia is managing parallel institutions in the young country and that the government does not control its own territory. In the meanwhile Representatives of several NGOs staged a protest Sunday (October 11th) outside the Serbian government building demanding July 11th be proclaimed a day of remembrance marking the Srebrenica genocide.
In Albania Thousands of opposition supporters took part in a rally in Tirana on Saturday (October 10th) against what they described as "manipulation" of the June 28th general elections on the part of the ruling Democratic Party of Prime Minister Sali Berisha.
According to media sources the Council of Europe's Venice Commission believes the controversial Albanian Lustration Law, that bans from government service anyone who worked for the communist-era secret police, violates the Albanian Constitution.
While in Macedonia more than 90% support their country's Euro-Atlantic and European integration efforts, according to a new survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI).
The Bulgarian government is backing out of a deal to buy four battleships -- corvettes -- from France. The billion-euro deal was struck by the previous Bulgarian cabinet but the global financial crisis and the country’s own budget deficit has prompted the cancellation.
In Romania the government collapsed last week, Tuesday (October 13th) as parliament approved a no-confidence motion filed by a group of opposition parties on October 6th. This is the first time in Romania's post-communist history that a government has been ousted in a no-confidence procedure.
Expert teams from the United States and the EU arrived in Sarajevo, Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH), on Monday (October 12th) to prepare for the next round of talks with party leaders aimed at breaking the longstanding political stalemate. Also the UN General Assembly elected on Thursday (October 15th) Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as a non-permanent member of the Security Council alongside Brazil, Nigeria, Gabon and Lebanon.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary Week # 88, Dated 4th – 10th Oct. 09’

WESTERN EUROPE
French companies are being urged to do all they can to prevent stress in the workplace after a spate of suicides. In Briton at least 30 people were arrested when a group demonstrating against Islamic fundamentalism clashed with anti-racism protesters last week. While in Geneva, Switzerland a physicist working at the world's largest atom smasher has been arrested on suspicion of links to al-Qaida. In the meanwhile the Belgian government has announced the arrival of a former Guantanamo detainee. The United States plans to close down the Guantanamo facility, and is seeking new homes for inmates who have been cleared for release but are not able to go to their own country for fear of ill-treatment.

SOUTHERN EUROPE
Greece’s new Prime Minister George Papandreou’s party PASOK won a convincing victory in the October 4th snap general elections that ousted the former ruling party the New Democracy (ND) conservatives. Also Greece took the top spot among its Balkan peers in the UN Development Programme's (UNDP) 2009 Human Development Report, achieving an index of 0.942 ranking 25th on the list, which rates 182 countries.

SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Last week the European Parliament (EP) Foreign Affairs Committee supported a proposal by the European Commission to scrap visa requirements for citizens of Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia, while also asking that Bosnia Herzegovina and Albania be included in the visa liberalization process, though neither has met EU-determined benchmarks yet. EP members also want to initiate visa liberalization dialogue with Kosovo. In the meanwhile US Ambassador to Kosovo Christopher Dell confirmed that his country will help monitor the November 15th municipal elections. At the same time, Dell said Kosovo must overcome the need for international monitoring, a crucial test of democracy. Croatia finally resumed its EU accession process, blocked by Slovenia since the end of 2008, through negotiations at the intergovernmental conference.
EU presidency holder Sweden and the United States are making efforts to overcome the stubborn political stalemate in Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH). In the meanwhile a referendum last week showed that more than two-thirds of Irish voters backed the Lisbon Treaty, which streamlines the running of the 27-nation EU bloc. Also the Serbian President Boris Tadic has voiced his country's interest to apply for EU membership soon. Albania's hopes to obtain the status of EU candidate country suffered a setback last week with Germany’s request to remove the topic from EU parliament’s agenda.
The Romania President Traian Basescu has announced his intention to seek another term in the November 22nd elections. While in Hungry the main opposition National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians (UDMR) filed a vote of no-confidence against the cabinet last week. In the meanwhile Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov voiced expectations on Tuesday (October 6th) that the process of resolving the long-standing name dispute with Greece will receive a new impetus, given the new government in Athens.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE INCLUDING RUSSIA AND BALTIC STATES
Irish voters' approval of the European Union's Lisbon Treaty keeps alive the EU's hopes of implementing reforms which it considers vital to increasing its global influence. Poland and the Czech Republic, the last two EU nations are left to ratify the document.
Vice President Joe Biden will visit Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic this month amid fresh concerns over the U.S. commitment to Eastern Europe's defense.
The Indonesian Military (TNI) spokesman confirmed that the Slovakian government has offered to sell tanks and other military vehicles to Indonesia
Canadian Citizenship and Immigration figures show that Hungary is a top refugee source country. While diplomatic meetings were held between the Nabucco pipeline project member states, the pipeline linking Europe to gas resources in Central Asia and the Middle East. These members included Hungary, Turkey, Austria, Bulgaria and Romania.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed his country’s ‘surprise’ at a statement of U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow, who had urged Russia to take into consideration interests of safety of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. He said it was Russia’s initiative to confirm “guarantees of security to Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which voluntarily gave up on nuclear weapons in the early 1990s.
The United States denied on Friday that it planned to station U.S. radar systems in Ukraine. Washington had added the former Soviet country to a list of possible early warning sites as it moves to refashion a European missile defense system.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said on Tuesday that his country is ready to hold talks and cooperate with Russia. He added that the military attacks Georgia launched last August against Tskhinvali, capital of Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia, were legitimate. An international fact-finding mission, backed by the European Union, released a report last week accusing Georgia of violating international laws by using force against Russian peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia.
Russia welcomes the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s willingness to return to the six-party talks on the Korean peninsula nuclear issue.
According to the European Commission's latest estimates, the budget deficits of Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia are all expected to violate the EU's Stability and Growth pact, by exceeding 3 per cent of their country's gross domestic product.
Kazakhstan is committed to joining the World Trade Organization as part of a free-trade zone with Russia and Belarus. All three former Soviet republics have been negotiating to join the WTO since the 1990s without success.
Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai has confirmed that Hungary will accept one Palestinian detainee from the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay.
The European Parliament adopted a resolution criticizing legislation in Lithuania against homosexuality, hence sending a clear message against homophobia.


US/CANADA
Congress is set to allow the Pentagon to keep new pictures of foreign detainees abused by their U.S. captors from the public; a move intended to end a legal fight after a lawsuit was filed by the American Civil Liberties Union under the Freedom of Information Act. While in Canada starkly contrasting data showed jobs markets topping expectations in September after a dismal August trade performance, testing the Bank of Canada's resolve to hold rates unchanged through mid-2010. The UN telecommunications agency chief warned last week that a "new arms race" was taking shape in cyberspace where government websites were at the risk of cyber attacks.

LATIN AMERICA
Argentina's Senate overwhelmingly approved a law that will transform the nation's media landscape bringing an end to the dictatorship-era rules that enabled a few companies to dominate Argentine media. Opponents however criticize provision of too much government control in the amended laws. While in Honduras signs of progress have emerged from two days of talks in an attempt to resolve the bitter divide over the ouster of President Manuel Zelaya.
Cuba’s Fidel Castro is among those in favor of the Norwegian Nobel Committee's controversial choice of U.S. President Barack Obama for the Nobel Peace prize. While saying that the choice was a "positive step," he qualified that it was more a repudiation of Obama's predecessors than recognition of anything concrete Obama has done.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's government says it is reaffirming an agreement with Britain to work together to prevent drug trafficking. A memorandum was signed to that effect last week.
A delegation of some diplomats, from 10 different countries of Latin and North America are converging to Honduras for dialogue to restore the authorities of an elected president. Negotiations on Zelays’s return continue.
Brazilian Space Agency and the Belgian Space Center of Liege signed an agreement of cooperation in space technologies. Also the Brazilian president has won the 2003 Gates Award for Global Health from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, for his efforts to combat HIV in the region.
US is building a system of fencing, lighting, sensors, cameras and radars for security purposes and to stop illegal cross border activities on US-Mexico border.
The president of Mexico is being awarded with the Bravo Business awards for his stand against organized crime, mobilizing military troops to end violence and reforming the criminal justice system. On the environment front Mexico has set a goal to generate 25 %of its electricity through renewable power sources by 2012. Also the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has included Mexico and Cuba as the only two Latin American nations on the List of Honor of countries planting the largest amount of trees.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Microscopic Analysis: Political Stalemate in Bosnia Herzegovina- ‘a new civil war’? Week # 88, Dated 4th-10th Oct 09’

EU and U.S have been actively involved in efforts at seeking solutions to the political paralysis in Bosnia Herzegovina amidst fears of a destabilized region triggered by a nation that is ‘falling behind’.

Most of the country's troubles stem from its ethnic divisions. The current fall out of the political parties is over constitutional changes needed for the country’s advances towards EU membership. The latest proposal on the table called for drastic changes in the Dayton peace accord that ended the 1992-995 civil war.

According to this settlement Bosnia was divided into two entities a Muslim-Croat federation and a Serb entity, Republika Srpska (RS). The entities had most state prerogatives, including their own governments, army and police. The international community, which still safeguards peace in Bosnia through the Office of High Representative (OHR), has gradually stripped the entities of some powers for the sake of strengthening central government.

The package, proposed by the US and the EU, called for a drastic revision of the Dayton peace accord in order to strengthen central government. The proposal calls for abolition of a rotating three-man state presidency, to be replaced by one president and two vice-presidents. The council of ministers would be transformed into a government which would make decisions by a simple majority vote, instead of by consensus. Further more there would be two-chambers of parliament: the Council of representatives would have 87 members and would make decisions by a simple majority vote. The House of people, representing the three ethnic groups, would have 21 members, but would serve mainly as an advisory body, without real influence on the country’s laws.

Bosnian Serb leader and RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik termed the proposal an “indecent proposal” tailored only to please the Muslim majority. While the Bosnian Croat leader Dragan Covic said the proposal was “below expectations and needs” of Croats, who would prefer their own entity. Muslim leaders Sulejman Tihic and Haris Silajdzic were only partly pleased, but said the entities should be stripped of even more power. The European Union, said Kurt Bassuener, senior associate at the Democratization Policy Council, a research and advocacy group based in the United States, is seen as “a desirable address and a deep-pockets donor — it throws money at problems — rather than a serious political actor.”

Brussels can exert huge leverage in countries that want to join the union, but not in Sarajevo. “The politicians believe that the E.U. wants them really bad, and will fudge its own criteria to bring them in,” Mr. Bassuener said. That serves local politicians who love to cite seeming progress toward joining Europe while playing to distinct ethnic groups with no interest in compromise.

There is growing concerns amongst analysts, media and other informed observers concerning the potential for a rapid deterioration of the situation in the country where some even question whether Bosnia is “on the brink of a new civil war”.

Discussion Questions:
· Do you think Bosnia Herzegovina is at the brink of ‘a new civil war’?

· Do the distinct ethnic entities in the country have the potential to gain inspiration from Kosovo and unilaterally declare independent?

· In your opinion is the European Union giving too much leverage to the country’s political leaders, hence impeding a credible environment for compromise and resolution?

Sources/Related Links:
http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Politics/?id=3.0.3897501565
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/23014/
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/world/europe/02union.html
http://www.rferl.org/content/EU_US_Announce_Emergency_Talks_With_Bosnia/1842258.html
http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Politics/?id=3.0.3854764787
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/weekinreview/06kulish.html _______________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Microscopic Analysis: ‘Kosovo’s Plight of Recognition- Serbia’s Adamant Stance.’ Week # 87- Dated 27th Sept-3rd Oct 09'

On September 25th Serbia Serbian President Boris Tadic told participants at the 64th UN General Assembly session in New York, that Belgrade will never recognize Kosovo as a sovereign state. Though its decision will not be enforceable, the Hague-based International Court of Justice is set to begin hearings on December 1st, 2009 on the question of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of idependence last year.

The roots of the Kosovo conflict run deep where both sides quarrel over disputed claims based on historical interpretations. UN led peacekeepers under UNMIK (Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo) authority now have a minor role in the disputed region, since the creation in December 2008, of the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX). In a dispute that has spanned generations the latest development came last year when The Assembly of Kosovo unanimously adopted the declaration of independence on 17 February 2008. However UN Resolution 1244 is still in force, where ultimate responsibility of administration falls on Special Representatives.

So far 62 of the UN's 192 countries and 22 of the 27 EU member states have recognized Kosovo's independence. Serbia however remains adamant in its claims to the disputed constituency.

CHECHNYA Russia, a firm supporter of Serbia is a major hurdle in Kosovo’s recognition by the United Nations. Apart from the Russian interest of hindering the full independence of Kosovo for fear that it may prove a perilous precedent for its Chechen problem, Moscow is championing the Serbian cause, based on historical and ideological significance as a Slavic group.

Turkey, a primary ally for the Kosovo cause, has strong historical and psychological ties with the Albanians. Never the less Turkey has been following a prudent approach, providing its support but towing a neutral line at the same time. In the balance lies its policy towards the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), a unilaterally declared independent state extant since early 1980s and officially recognized by Turkey alone. On the other hand it fears a precedent being set for northern Iraq, ruled by an autonomous Kurdish administration, and Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan that has been under Armenian occupation for more than a decade.

However, at the UN Security Council meeting this year the Turkish ambassador underlined the importance his nation attached to security and stability in the Balkans, taking in context Kosovo's independence and integration in the international community. In the same line he stressed boosting relations with Serbia and its integration in the EU.

List of Countries That

Recognize Kosovo
Post Kosovo’s declaration of independence Serbian aspiration to the EU divided the coalition government in Serbia. Despite apprehensions, Serbia has remained inflexible regarding its stance on Kosovo. Recently the US Vice President Joe Biden on a trip to Belgrade sought better relations with Serbia whilst stressing that the recognition of Kosovo is not a pre condition for Serbian integration in the EU. With renewed optimism Serbia is expected to apply for the EU candidature by the end of this year.

So far Serbia, preconditioned for basic internal reform, seems set on its path to the EU; while Kosovo, having gained recognition from 62 nations so far, continues to seek international support and integration into international bodies.

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Discussion Questions:

· How would you project Kosovo's chances for a favorable ruling in the International Court of Justice regarding its unilateral declaration of independence in Feb. 2008?

· Even though the ICJ ruling is not enforceable, do you think it can bring an end to hostilities in the generations old conflict?

· Despite having gained recognition from a majority of European nations, would Serbian accession to the European Union dash Kosovo’s chances of joining the EU as well?

Related Links
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Kosovo#Kosovo_in_the_Second_Yugoslavia_.281945-1996.29
http://www.sofiaecho.com/2009/10/07/795947_russia-pledges-backing-for-serbia-at-icj-hearing-on-kosovo
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/special_report/1998/kosovo/110492.stm
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/yazarDetay.do?haberno=134414
http://www.kosovotimes.net/kosovo-chronicle/551-turkish-and-us-support-for-kosovo-in-the-un-security-council.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7262134.stm

ttp://www.kosovothanksyou.com
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Telescopic Analysis: ‘Amerindian Reaction to Human Rights Excesses- A Political Awakening?, Week # 87 dated 27th Sept-3rd Oct 09'

Chile-

Ethnic Groups-white and white-Amerindian 95.4%, Mapuche 4%, other indigenous groups 0.6% (2002 census)

Independence- 18 September 1810 (from Spain)

GDP- per capita (PPP)- $14,900 (2008 est.)

In Chile, Amnesty International has been denouncing the slow and inadequate resolution of Indigenous Peoples’ claims to their ancestral lands, along with the impact of current and future extraction and logging industry projects, is causing tension resulting in violence. More than 4% of the nation's 17 million citizens belong to one of its nine indigenous tribes. The Mapuches resisted the Spanish conquest for 300 years before Chile’s government finally pushed them into communities in southern Chile.
The tribe had a series of violent confrontations with the Chilean government in August 2009 over the eviction of Indians from seized land. Many of these actions were initiated by the Coordinadora Arauco Malleco (CAM), an indigenous group that has been accused of terrorist acts. Last month, dozens of indigenous communities agreed to form the Mapuche Territorial Alliance to fight for political autonomy and press demands to end poverty. President Michelle Bachelet proposed Tuesday to create a Ministry for Indigenous Affairs to place more weight on policies affecting Chile's Indian communities. This was met with disapproval from the Mapuche Indians who called it a ‘curtain of smoke’ to ‘avoid straight answers’.

Ecuador-

Ethnic Groups-mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 65%, Amerindian 25%, Spanish and others 7%, black 3%

Independence-24 May 1822 (from Spain)

GDP- per Capita (PPP)-$7,500 (2008 est.)

In Ecuador 3.4 million Indigenous tribes make up 25% of the population. Arbitrary arrest and ill-treatment, high levels of poverty and social exclusion are some of the reported ills against the indigenous population as reported by Amnesty International. Violence erupted last week in the region when a highway blockade by Ecuador’s Shuar Indians left one dead and several injured.
The leftist President Rafael Correa is in an intensifying dispute with indigenous groups, who oppose a recently proposed legislation on water, mining and oil laws which they claim would allow mining on their lands without their consent and lead to the privatization of water. The Shuar vowed not to lift the blockade until the president personally negotiates with them while Correa says talks can't start until Indians abandon the blockades.
In 1986, indigenous people formed the first "truly" national political organization. The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) has been the primary political institution of the Indigenous populations and the second largest political party in the nation. It has been influential in national politics, contributing to the ouster of presidents Abdalá Bucaram in 1997 and Jamil Mahuad in 2000.

Peru-

Ethhnic Groups-Amerindian 45%, mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 37%, white 15%, black, Japanese, Chinese, and other 3%

Independence-28 July 1821 (from Spain)

GDP- per Capita (PPP)-$8,500 (2008 est.)

Neighboring Peru is contending with a bloody rebellion of Amazon Indians protesting government efforts to allow private development of their traditional lands. Peru has the largest indigenous population of South America, about 45%. In the recent violence Amnesty international has recorded the brutal response of the government to what it terms as the ‘legitimate protests of Indigenous Peoples for their rights’.
On 5 June this year protests were held claiming the people’s right to land and consultation on decree laws regarding land and natural resources in the Peruvian Amazon. Such consent is required under international law. The government crackdown was reported to have been excessively forceful.
Individual indigenous groups have a variety of governance structures. MATSES, the Movement in the Amazon for Tribal Subsistence and Economic Sustainability (MATSES), is an indigenous people’s rights organization that is working for the cultural survival of indigenous people in Peru. The State has now commenced a process of dialogue with Indigenous Peoples. However persecution on a political level is still feared.

Discussion Questions:

· Does the recent violent response of Indigenous Communities in Latin America depict a heightened political conscience, fueling their right to protest?

· In light of the global Human Rights consciousness are the local governments more inclined to give leverage to the indigenous peoples?

· Is Latin America headed towards another revolutionary phase of its history in which indigenous people and other marginalized social and economic groups will coalesce their forces?
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Bibliography
[1] http://www.culturalsurvival.org/files/Ecuador.pdf
[2] http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/AMR01/004/2009/en/65324480-80e4-4de1-a664-efb848089378/amr010042009en.pdf

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary Week # 87, Dated 27th Sept- 3rd Oct 09’

WESTERN EUROPE
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven rich countries warned that recovery remains "fragile" and unemployment continues to rise. In the U.S. economy unemployment hit a 26-year high of 9.8 percent. Germany celebrated the anniversary of its reunification on Saturday, 3rd Oct. Ireland's recession-hit voters have overwhelmingly approved the European Union's reform plans in a referendum. The country had been the primary obstacle to ratifying the EU Lisbon Treaty, a mammoth agreement designed to modernize and strengthen the 27-nation bloc's institutions and decision-making powers. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has agreed to take part in Britain's first televised election debate among party leaders while in Germany Voters re-elected conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel. The center-left Social Democrats — who had been in government for 11 years — scored only 23 percent of the vote. Gen. David Richards, Britain's new army commander has said that the U.K. is ready to send more soldiers to Afghanistan, if asked to by the commander of the U.S. and NATO forces there.

SOUTHERN EUROPE
Tens of thousands of people gathered in a Rome square Saturday to defend press freedom. The premier Berlusconi, a media magnate, has dismissed the accusations as a "joke" and the demonstration as a "farce." While in Greece opposition Socialists were expected to win parliamentary election on Sunday (4th Oct) with between 41 and 44 percent of the vote, according to an exit poll for Greek TV stations

SOUTHEAST EUROPE
After surviving a no-confidence vote last week, the Romanian cabinet is now facing a possible reshuffle, in a bid to assure better governance. The sacking of Interior Minister Dan Nica, has fueled already tense relations between the country's governing coalition parties and Prime Minister Emil Boc has decided to form a minority cabinet. Albania’s opposition Socialist Party (SP) has refused to return to parliament unless a thorough investigation is conducted into the June general elections. EP Rapporteur on visa liberalization for the Western Balkans, sparked debate at the European Parliament demanding to include Albania and Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH) in the process. The 15th contingent of Albanian peacekeepers departed for Afghanistan on Sept 29th. In the meanwhile Italian Ambassador to Kosovo Michael Giffoni is to serve as the EU's "facilitator" in Serb-dominated northern Kosovo, a move the PM said reflective of international interest in stabilizing the area. Also the UN has acceded to accept partial responsibility for the deaths of two protestors belonging to the group Vetevendosje (Self-Determination) in February 2007. Kosovo will also participate for the first time in a two-day IMF and World Bank event in Istanbul, in Oct. The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) has accused the PM of threatening media freedom and freedom of speech. The EU Permanent Representatives Committee (COREPER) has revealed substantial progress in Croatia's accession talks. In the meanwhile the government voiced its intent to fulfill all requests made by The Hague war crimes tribunal. Serbian President Boris Tadic told participants at the 64th UN General Assembly session in New York that Belgrade will never recognize Kosovo as a sovereign state. A two-day regional conference on co-operation in fighting organized crime was held in Belgrade on Sept 28th. Serbia also intends to apply for official EU candidacy this year. European and U.S. officials are to meet with Bosnian leaders next week to discuss the political deadlock in the Balkan country.

US/CANADA
Canada's minority Conservative government survived a non-confidence motion on Thursday on its handling of the economic crisis due to a split among the three opposition parties. Had the government lost the vote, Canada would have been tipped into its second election in a year. In the mean while Canada and United States continue to work to end a spat over the "Buy American" restrictions in U.S. economic stimulus spending, but remain short of a deal.

LATIN AMERICA
In Honduras, Interim President Roberto Micheletti told reporters that a dialogue is "beginning" between his supporters and those of President Manuel Zelaya, who was forced from office on June 28 by a military-backed coup. Some 2,000 people marched across Venezuela's capital Saturday to protest what they say is the persecution of President Hugo Chavez's opponents. Also around 150 Venezuelan university students ended a hunger strike Wednesday after the Organization of American States agreed to hear their concerns over alleged political persecution. While Venezuela's top prosecutor has asked Interpol to capture former President Carlos Andres Perez for violence committed during street protests two decades ago. U.N. Special Envoy to Haiti, Bill Clinton is now fighting to revive the country’s economy which was destroyed by the severe embargo he oversaw as president against the country’s then-brutal regime. While in Ecuador the leftist President Rafael Correa is in an intensifying dispute with indigenous groups who enforced a violent blockade in protest of a proposed legislation allowing mining on their lands without their consent. Wednesday's violence recalled a similar clash in June in Peru in which at least 33 people were killed when police broke up a roadblock by Indians protesting development decrees. A senior U.S. diplomat in Cuba for talks, first time in over a decade, also met with opposition activists. In Peru a court imposed a six-year prison sentence on the disgraced ex-President Alberto Fujimori in a televised trial. Previous convictions are expected to keep him in jail till 2030. The Chilean air force has invited its Peruvian counterpart to observe military maneuvers that the later termed as threatening. Also in Chile President Michelle Bachelet proposed a Ministry for Indigenous Affairs to place more weight on policies affecting Chile's Indian communities. In the meanwhile a judge is questioning the eldest son of the late Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet in an investigation into his father's overseas bank accounts.

OCEANIA
At least 14 people were reported killed in American Samoa following the powerful earthquake and tsunami which hit the area early Tuesday, while a tsunami warning was also issued for New Zealand and other Pacific islands. Australia's central bank chief on Monday said economic stimulus was set to be eased as the country hits "recovery phase". While an influx of refugee boats in Australia could divide Australians a year from elections and reignite an immigration row that carried conservatives to victory in 2001.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia, Summary-Week # 85, Dated 20-26th Sept 2009

US/CANADA

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates gave a stern warning to critics for continued troop presence in Afghanistan, saying it would be a ‘strategic mistake’ to set premature timelines. While a 23% hike in the applications for retirement benefits filed by laid off seniors, are expected to add to the federal deficit in the next two years in the US. Canada's minority Conservative government is set for a showdown with the opposition Liberal Party on Thursday 1st Oct 09’ that could send the country back to the polls for the fourth time in just over five years. Also Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi cancelled his plans for a stop over in Canada after an official statement voiced government intent to rebuke the African leader against the warm welcome meted out to the convicted 1988 Lockerbie bomber. As the leader addressed the UN General Assembly, the US Senate also approved a resolution condemning the lavish welcome. Canada's Federal Court lifted restrictions on Thursday 24th Sept 09’ on an immigrant from Morocco accused of terrorism in 2003 after the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) withdrew evidence saying it would endanger the agency's sources. While Trade Minister Stockwell Day revealed that Canada is close to signing a deal with India to sell nuclear technology and materials. A moratorium on nuclear trade with India was only lifted last year, first imposed when India diverted material from Canadian-designed reactors to make a nuclear bomb in 1974. Canada is set to extend a program to help banks by buying insured mortgages, a sign it is not yet ready to unwind temporary crisis measures even though market conditions have improved, reported local newspapers.

WESTERN EUROPE

German voters handed conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel a second term and a chance to create new center-right government last week, while her center-left rivals suffered a historic defeat in the national election. While the British Prime Minister Gordon Brown insisted last week at an annual convention that he won't quit his post before a national election the party is expected to lose. Brown's party trails far behind the main opposition Conservative Party in opinion polls, and has suffered heavy defeats in recent local council and European elections. Two Uzbeks freed from the Guantanamo Bay prison arrived last week in Ireland, while Amnesty International appealed to other European Union nations to deliver on pledges to give new homes to U.S. terror detainees. As France debates whether to ban the burqa, the government is leading a drive to attract billions in investment from Muslim countries by turning Paris into the European capital of Islamic finance. The French parliament this month has approved changes to legislation to allow Islamic "sukuk" bonds to be issued and the Qatar Islamic Bank has applied to be the first such bank to open in France. While in Copenhagen hundreds of climate activists protested against the use of fossil fuels, but were blocked from entering a coal-firing plant they had hoped to shut down. The demonstration precedes a UN Climate Change Conference due to be held in December. Also the German authorities banned all flights over Munich's annual Oktoberfest beer festival last week after a series of Islamic terror threats targeted Germany for its role in Afghanistan.

LATIN AMERICA/SOUTHERN EUROPE

In the wake of the Honduran Coup in June, the Honduran interim government has set a 10 days ultimatum for the Brazilian authorities to ensure that Zelaya, the ousted president, not use the Brazilian embassy’s diplomatic protection to instigate violence in the country. While Venezuela's science and technology minister said that his country is working with Russia to detect deposits of uranium, qualifying that the linkages with Iran come under the Venezuela's Mining Ministry; the US, however, has voiced its concern regarding a possible exchange of nuclear material. Gadhafi and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez led about 30 presidents in calling for stronger "South-South" ties at a two-day summit last week that was the Libyan ruler's first visit to Latin America. Pope Benedict XVI said last week that all of Europe — and not only his host Czech Republic, a highly secular country — must acknowledge its Christian heritage as it copes with rising immigration from other cultures and religions. While the Socialist opposition leader George Papandreou, who is widely expected to win Greece's national election next weekend, says fighting endemic corruption and creating a stimulus package are essential if Greece is to emerge from a deep financial crisis. Puerto Rico's government has announced that it will lay off more than 16,000 public workers in the U.S. Caribbean territory, adding to an unemployment rate higher than that of any U.S state. Also with the next wave of swine flu upon the region, the Mexicans are bracing for an outbreak that may be even larger than the pandemic last year.

OCEANESIA

First of its kind, Bundanoon, a town in Australia imposed a ban on bottled water after a campaign that educated people about the adverse environmental impact of bottled water. While an Australian court sentenced a former Qantas Airways baggage handler, wanted on terrorism-related charges in Lebanon, to 12 years in prison last week for publishing a do-it-yourself jihad book on the Internet. Also it was revealed that the country has created a massive nature reserve in the country's far north that will be managed by Aborigines. Australia, the largest non NATO participant in Afghanistan says it has not been asked to send more troops to Afghanistan in the wake of a report by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, which warned against premature withdrawal timelines.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.