Zone 3- Americas. Microscopic Analysis: The Honduran Coup- Latin America at a Crossroads?. Week # 86, Dated 20th-26th Sept, 09'.

On June 28th this year the Honduran army ousted Zelaya, an elected president, and exiled him in Central America's first military coup since the Cold War; Roberto Micheletti, the head of the Honduran Congress seized executive power in his stead where elections are scheduled for 28th of November this year. This week the Honduran interim government has set a 10 days ultimatum for the Brazilian authorities to ensure that Zelaya, who snuck back into the country and took refuge at the Brazilian embassy, not use its diplomatic protection to instigate violence in the country.

Mr Zelaya's removal followed a power struggle over his plans for constitutional change. The ousted president had wanted to hold a referendum, a non-binding public consultation due to be held on 28 June this year, that could have led to an extension of his non-renewable four-year term in office.

Zelaya has called his supporters to launch mass protests against the coup that has widely being condemned as illegal. There have been regular demonstrations both for and against Mr Zelaya, in a turmoil that has divided the Honduran population. A condition of political deadlock has ensued and a state of emergency has been imposed. In a whirlwind of events the interim government has cracked down on media and imposed curfews only to later apologize and promise a restoration of liberties.

Mr Zelaya, who came to office in 2006, a left oriented leader, enjoyed the support of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and other left-wing leaders in the region. This appears to have alarmed certain sectors in Honduras, who perceived his plans for constitutional change as an attempt to stay in power.

Tension had been brewing in Honduras over recent months. Mr Zelaya sacked the head of the armed forces, at his refusal to provide logistical support for the planned referendum, a decision the Supreme Court later overruled. At Zelaya’s insistence to carry forth the consultation the Congress voted to remove him for what it called "repeated violations of the constitution and the law", and the Supreme Court put its weight behind it by ordering removal of the president.

Now widely being hailed as a symbol of a democratic Honduras, Zelaya, one analyst notes ironically did not hold popular approval, where only 25% voiced support for his policies in an opinion poll this year. Moreover the legality of his planned referendum is widely under doubt and the interim government is adamant that the military mobilized under constitutional orders and not of its own accord.

The United States has joined the Latin American leadership in proclaiming the ouster as illegal. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking after meeting Mr Zelaya in Washington on 7 July, said that the US supported the restoration of the democratic, constitutional order in Honduras. But she did not explicitly call for Mr Zelaya, a frequent critic of the US, to return to power, saying he should try to settle issues in talks. However, recently president Obama qualified that a "terrible precedent" would be set if the coup were not reversed. Hence far attempts at reconciliation have not borne any fruit, with no end to the crisis in sight.

[1]Discussion Questions:

· Has the unfolding crisis in Honduras put the nation at a critical juncture that would determine the course of a democratic Latin America?

· Do you think Zelaya, now being portrayed as a democratic martyr is playing a shrewd political game?

· Does the American condemnation of the political upheaval and only a recent categorical renouncement of specifically Zelaya’s ouster as illegal demonstrate a tentative shift in the superpower’s policy towards Latin America?

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Bibliography:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8125292.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8124154.stm
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55R1S820090628?sp=true http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090928/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_honduras_coup
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/editorial/zelayas-game-899

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 3- Americas. Microscopic Analysis: Continent Wide Protests Against Hugo Chavez. Week #83, Dated 30th Aug-5th Sept.

Critics of Hugo Chavez marched in cities across the globe last week, in protests organized from the Columbian platform, calling the Venezuelan president a dictator, violator of human rights and hard-line populist who had placed his nation’s freedom of expression in jeopardy.

Chavez, who came to power in 1998, has become a charismatic global leader, but a polarizing figure at home and abroad for his unapologetic policies aimed at creating a socialist state. His use of Venezuela's oil wealth to fund social programs has won him the admiration and support of the poor and working classes who make up a majority of the country's population. However to critics his policies seem unsustainable.

Demonstrations were organized by Colombian activists after Mr. Chavez criticized Colombia for allowing US forces access to seven military bases. Accusations have also been levied against Chavez for supporting the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, Colombia's Marxist rebels who have been fighting the government for more than 45 years.

Protest organizers used a number of social networking sites to organize the anti-Chavez demonstrations, where Facebook and Twitter were the prime means for organizing the protestors.

An estimated 5,000 people took part in protests in the Colombian capital Bogota, and thousands more in the capitals of Venezuela and Honduras. Smaller demonstrations were held in other Latin American capitals, as well as in New York and Madrid. In Venezuela, President Chavez's supporters, in relatively smaller numbers, also marched through the capital, Caracas, to show their solidarity with the socialist leader.

The BBC's Will Grant was of the view that conflict over Mr. Chavez is nothing new, but many Venezuelans are becoming disillusioned with the extent to which both sides seem to focus more on protests than policies.

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Discussion Questions:

· Since Chavez derives his support from the poorer segment of the society who often lack access to modern technology, could the use of social networking websites as an organizing tool have put him at a disadvantage?

· Does the fact that protests went through in Venezuela depict the falsehood of the allegations against suppression of speech, or is it simply a consequence of the media revolution that impedes despotic control of information sources?

· Does the continental level of protests, organized beyond national boundaries depict an erosion of state sovereignty in the face of relocation of power to transnational elements?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.