BPM- Euro-Americas Zone: November 2009

Monday, November 23, 2009

Zone 3- Telescopic Analysis- 'Middle East and Latin America- a New Proxy Field for Engagment?'- W # 92

Week # 92, Dated 1st-7th No. 09’

Latin America is being espoused as a battleground for competing Middle East powers, whose leaders are criss-crossing the continent seeking support from an increasingly strategic region. President Peres’ visit to the region from November 10-17 marks the first state visit by an Israeli President to

Brazil in 40 years and to Argentina in 20 years. Peres' visit comes amid stalled Middle East peace negotiations and only days before Palestinian Authority acting Chief Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to visit Argentina. President Ahmadinejad of Iran is also planning a similar trip to Brazil and the region this month. More over Hugo Chavez expects Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Venezuela by the end of the year as well.

Israeli President’s trip is primarily to offset growing Iranian influence in the region. Iran has developed strong alliances on the continent with a number of socialist governments, allied to Tehran by their hostility towards America. Also a major concern is the launching of a new diplom

atic campaign by Palestinian Authority leaders to gain international backing for a Palestinian state, seeking to unilaterally declare statehood in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem.

Brazil and Argentina have Latin America’s largest Jewish populations out of a total estimated 500,000 in the region. Peres was in Brazil last week, where Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is due to arrive on November 23, and Brazilian officials say Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas may also visit later this month. Asked if he thought Brazil, given its good relations with both Israel and Iran, might be a good nation to help temper Iran's supposed nuclear ambitions, Peres said: "Maybe. But I don't have this expectation.". During the UN General Assembly in September Brazilian President Silva defended Iran's right to have a nuclear program for energy and called it a great partner. Brazil’s close relations with Iran have been a source of concern for Israel as well as the United States, says Chris Sabatini, senior director of policy for the New York-based Council of the Americas. It has become a voice for poor countries in the G-20, and some governments see it as the moderate voice of the region'

s leftist-led nations. Brazil has a sizable Shiite Muslim population in the states of Paraná and São Paulo, which is another reason for its open relations with Iran, according to Sabatini.

Argentina on the other hand has taken the opposite tack from Brazil and has collaborated more so with the US in isolating Iran. One reason is Buenos Aires’ “large, vocal [and] politically powerful” Jewish population, says Sabatini, and the not-too-distant memories of the 1992 and 94’ bombings of the Israeli embassy and at the Israelite Mutual Association. Argentina and Israel accuse Iran of masterminding these attacks.

A visit to the country by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is also scheduled for the coming week. Kirchner, Peres’s Argentine counterpart has been pushing for fresh negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians and has strongly condemned the illegal Israeli settlement policy in the occupied territories. Argentina has also offered to mediate between Israel and Palestine for peace in the Middle East.

Iran’s ideological and political agenda does have more traction in some parts of Latin America – especially with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Venezuela has deepened its ties with Iran in recent years, exchanging official visits and signing numerous agreements to cement economic, political and military cooperation. Both nations are strident critics of the United States and Israel. Venezuela has also been accused of aiding Iran with its ‘nuclear ambitions’, a claim that both nations deny. Israel has not had diplomatic relations with Venezuela since January, when Chavez kicked out the Israeli delegation to protest Israel’s war with Gaza.

Iran’s spreading influence in South America is causing concern both in the United States and Israel. Washington is clearly alarmed by Iran’s inroads in the region. Hillary Clinton at the commencement of her designation as Secretary of State signaled her concern about Tehran’s ambitions, claiming that it was making “disturbing gains” on the continent. Given the new administrations change of policy as regards engaging Iran, Latin America has the potential to pose as a proxy mediator. However, so far leadership on both sides seems more inclined towards forwarding their respective strategic interests in the region rather then any credible engagement.

Discussion Questions:
· Do you think Latin America has the capacity to provide a credible platform to resolve Middle Eastern rivalries?

· How active a player is the United States in these proceedings given its shaky reputation with the left inclined governments in the region?

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Monday, November 16, 2009

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary Week # 92

Week # 92- Dated 1st -7th Nov. 09’

WESTERN EUROPE

Britain is using genetic tests on some African asylum seekers in an effort to catch those who are lying about their nationality. This move has drawn criticism from scientists and provoked outrage from rights groups. Also a group of British lawmakers proposed new laws last week to ban the use of airports, harbors or highways in the secret rendition of suspected terrorists. Meanwhile Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Washington's closest ally in Afghanistan, tou

ghened his tone last week with a harsh message for the Afghan leadership demanding a crack down on corruption.
The British government moved Tuesday to break up the country's two biggest retail banks, imposing a major shakeup on the financial sector as it exacts payback for last year's massive state bailout.
Last week in Paris prosecutors said they will not appeal a judge's decision to order former French President Jacques Chirac to stand trial in an alleged corruption case that predated his presidency. The case would mark the first time a former leader of modern France would be forced to defend him self in court. Meanwhile President Nicolas Sarkozy's government is drawing up a reform plan to do away with investigating judges, a two-century-old Napoleonic legacy, who enjoy sweeping powers including ordering phone taps, home searches, interrogating terrorists and even bring down politicians.
With the Czech President Vaclav Klaus’s signing of the Lisbon Treaty the last major hurdle, the resolution looks set to become law within weeks. Meanwhile senior U.S. and Czech defense officials held talks Friday to discuss ways for the Czech Republic to participate in a reworked U.S. missile defense plan
Last week in Scotland, Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 countries gathered to negotiate the imbalances weighing on the world economy. Meanwhile Sweden and Finland approved a Baltic Sea pipeline project that would ship Russian natural gas to Germany.

SOUTHERN EUROPE

An Italian judge found 23 Americans and two Italians guilty last week in the kidnapping of an Egyptian terror suspect, delivering the first legal convictions anywhere in the world against people involved in the CIA's extraordinary renditions program. Meanwhile the Vatican has denounced a ruling by the European court of human rights that said the display of crucifixes in Italian public schools violates religious and education freedoms.
Due to Africans' demands, most of the rest of this week's Climate Change talks in Spain will be devoted to discussing carbon-cutting pledges rather than other issues including carbon offsets and action by developing countries.

SOUTH-EAST EUROPE

Romanian Authorities have banned all visits to hospitals to prevent the spread of swine flu. Over the past week alone, 174 new cases of the H1N1 virus have been registered, bringing the total number to 555. Meanwhile Romanian Prime Minister-designate Lucian Croitoru lost a vote of confidence in parliament last week against his proposed cabinet.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik announced last week his withdrawal from talks on constitutional reforms aimed at speeding BiH's EU and NATO accession. Meanwhile Serbian President Boris Tadic announced that Serbia could apply for EU membership by the end of the year.
Croatian Presidential elections are due to be held on December 27th. Also the Croatian cabinet has approved an arbitration agreement with Slovenia that should result in solution to the year-long border dispute between the two states.

US/CANADA

Last week the US Senate voted unanimously to extend aid for jobless workers and broaden tax breaks for homebuyers and businesses in a bid to breathe life into the struggling economy. Meanwhile according to news reports President Barack Obama and the Democrats, heading into next year's elections for control of Congress are losing independents to the Republicans and parts of their own Democratic base to apathy.
According to a report, Preparations for the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Winter Games have given the Canadian city an economic boost comparable to those enjoyed by past host cities. However, overall Canada lost more jobs in October than previously predicted, dashing hopes for a quick economic rebound and suggesting a recovery in the labor market may have gotten off to a false start. Meanwhile close to 6 million Canadians, or about 18 percent of the population, will be vaccinated against H1N1 flu by early next week.

LATIN AMERICA

An agreement to end a four-month political crisis in Honduras collapsed last week after the ousted President Manuel Zelaya and de facto leader Roberto Micheletti failed to form a government of unity to heal the damage from a June coup.
Meanwhile Haitian senators have taken a key first step toward replacing the prime minister they ousted a week ago. In a 22-0 vote, lawmakers affirmed that planning and external cooperation minister Jean-Max Bellerive meets constitutional requirements to be prime minister.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's government is sending 15,000 soldiers to the border with Colombia, claiming the military buildup is needed to combat drug trafficking and root out paramilitary groups.
Israeli President Shimon Peres is to visit Brazil next week, just days before Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to also arrive. Also Presidents Peres of Israel, Mahmud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela are due to visit Argentina this month and according to a diplomat, Peres and Kirchner will discuss the "conflict in the Middle East" and address "Iran's growing influence in Latin America and its hate-filled ideology and intention to obtain nuclear arms”. Argentina has the largest Jewish community in Latin America where almost 300,000 Jews reside.
Chilean government economists are upbeat about the country's growth, but Argentina is struggling with endemic stoppages by farmers and workers angry over government policies; recently Buenos Aires was hit by a series of strikes.
Meanwhile the last military president in Argentina's 1976-1983 dictatorship went on trial on last week on charges of kidnapping, torture and murder of 56 people in a concentration camp.
In a bid to cope with the economic crisis Brazilian president Lula de Silva is pushing a bill in Congress that would increase government control over the oil sector. Also the congress passed a bill which gives greater control to Brazil on its oil off shores. The new pre-salt oilfields are expected to cost an estimated $400 billion and could make Brazil one of the world's top ten oil exporters.
Showing its commitment to environmental preservation Brazil has promised to reduce 80 percent of the deforestation in the Amazon Rain Forest by 2020.
Mexico has reopened its embassy in the Nigerian Federal capital of Abuja. The move is aimed at improving relationship with countries in the West African region were Mexico has no diplomatic representatives.

AUSTRALASIA

Australian authorities have declared a natural disaster along parts of the country's east coast as heavy floods cut the main road linking major cities, stranding thousands of people. Also the government launched an inquiry last week into a major oil spill off the coast which has been described as one of the country's worst environmental disasters.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary Week # 91

Week # 91- Dated 25th – 31st Oct. 09’

WESTERN EUROPE

Luxembourg's premier spoke out last week against former British Prime Minister Tony Blair's candidacy to become the European Union's first-ever president. In the meanwhile Angela Merkel was sworn in for a second term as German chancellor a month after national elections. Also Germany's Lutheran Church has elected a woman, Margot Kaess

mann, to lead the nation's Protestants for the first time in its history.
British lawyers looking for ways to hold Israel accountable for its deadly advance into Gaza last year have expanded their legal campaign by seeking the arrest of Israeli military officers entering Britain. While UK’s Postal workers have threatened a second round of national strikes after talks to end a bitter dispute over pay, working conditions and modernization broke down.
A team of U.N. nuclear inspectors returned to Austria last week expressed satisfaction at their visit to a previously secret Iranian uranium enrichment site.
At a two-day European Union summit in Brussels last week the stalled reform treaty overcame a crucial hurdle after EU leaders agreed to last-minute demands from the Czech Republic in return for the country's ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. Meanwhile EU leaders failed to reach a consensus about grants for poorer nations to counter the effects of Global Warming, raising fears of any significant development in the December Copenhagen conference. Also the EU has dropped the last remaining sanctions against Uzbekistan imposed after a 2005 crackdown on an uprising, proclaiming the move to be intended as further encouragement for the country to improve its human rights record.

SOUTHEAST EUROPE

Bosnia's top official canceled a diplomatic visit to Sweden last week following the Swedish decision to grant Bosnian Serb war criminal Biljana Plavsic an early release after serving two-thirds of an 11-year jail term. In the meanwhile in Bosnia, Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik invited all parliamentary parties to constitutional reform talks last week. Also after a two-day meeting of the EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg the 27-nation bloc stressed its readiness to continue working with Bosnian politicians to seek compromise in order to secure a future in the EU and NATO.
Croatians are set to vote on Dec. 27th to elect a new president. Meanwhile opposition parties rejected an agreement on settling the border dispute between Croatia and Slovenia presented by Croatian Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor last week. Also Romanian President Traian Basescu has signed a decree regarding a referendum on making parliament unicameral, reducing the number of parliament members from 471 to 300.
The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) has accused Prime Minister Hashim Thaci of turning Kosovo's Public Broadcaster, the RTK, into a "media arm of the ruling party".
In its annual report published on Oct. 26th, the European police noted that Albania is believed to play a central role in drug trafficking and maintains strong connections with Kosovo and Italy in human trafficking, heroin and marijuana smuggling.

US/CANADA

On the domestic front in the United States after months of negotiations House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has prepared to unveil a retooled health care overhaul plan intended to bridge differences among Democrats. In the economic arena a year after Lehman Brothers collapsed, triggering the worst financial crisis in seven decades, the Obama administration is pressing Congress for the power to dismantle other non-bank firms that have the potential to take down the economy. At the foreign policy front President Barack Obama is considering a scaled-down version of the war plan advanced by his top Afghanistan commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal.
According to an Ekos poll, Canada's governing Conservatives are maintaining a strong lead in public support following an ill-fated attempt by the opposition Liberals to force an early election. While according to the CROP survey for La Presse newspaper Separatists in the province of Quebec have taken a slight lead over the governing Liberals, who are under pressure to investigate an alleged corruption scandal.
Also last week Canada's new spy chief accused journalists and human rights advocates of often glorifying terror suspects as "quasi folk heroes".

LATIN AMERICA

The Nicaraguan Congress narrowly rejected an initiative last week to force a debate on whether to annul a hotly disputed court ruling allowing President Daniel Ortega to seek re-election. While a senior U.S. delegation has asked Honduras' rival factions to be more flexible in the resolution of the coup-torn country's 4-month-old crisis. Also the U.S. ambassador and 3 Colombian ministers signed a pact last week giving American personnel expanded access to military bases in the country; a deal that Venezuela's Hugo Chavez has called a threat to the region's security. In the mean while Chile's president has sent to Congress a bill seeking to strip military courts of their ability to try civilians reversing the ‘excessive expansion’ during the 1973-90 dictatorship.
Ecuador's president was in London last week to promote a proposal seeking $3 billion compensation not to drill for oil in a pristine Amazon reserve, hence compensating for the high cost to poor countries of going green.
Pope Benedict XVI will meet with the Archbishop of Canterbury next month in the leaders' first encounter since the Catholic Church moved to make it easier for disenchanted Anglicans to convert to Catholicism.
Argentine government has voiced its willingness to re negotiate on the U.S. government military accord, signed between 1953 and 1964, related to the internal security of the country, nuclear cooperation, as well as activities of intelligence exchange on issues that are now prohibited to the Armed Forces. These include drug trafficking and terrorism. Meanwhile the Argentine President Cristina Fernandez has introduced an official project for policy reform including obligatory internal open elections for the political parties.
The head of Brazil’s opposition party (PSDB, Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy) has criticized the President at his inability to overcome criminal gangs, as the nation prepares to host the 2016 Olympic Games. At the behest of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) as well, President Lula Da Silva has announces US$75.8 million for Rio’s police to combat drug cartels.
Twenty four years after the military left power in Brazil, the government is set to create a Truth Commission to investigate crimes committed by the security forces between 1964 and 1985.
In the meanwhile Honduras has taken Brazil to court for allowing ousted President Manuel Zelaya to remain in its embassy in the Honduran capital, Tegucigalpa. A case has been filed in the International Court of Justice at Hague against the Brazilian president Lula de Silva.
Hundreds and thousands of people marched in Mexico City against the rightist government’s decision to privatize the power and electric company fearing the loss of thousands of jobs. In the meanwhile due to low supply of swine flu vaccine, Mexican president Felipe Carlderon has ordered for a million doses, even allowing the French drug company Sanofi-Aventis to open its manufacturing plant in Mexico.

AUSTRALASIA

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is expected to make a formal apology to hundreds of thousands of child-abuse victims known as the "Forgotten Australians" next month. Meanwhile authorities may have to force people to evacuate coastal areas as rising sea levels threaten thousands of homes in the country.
China has called for a sweeping new era in ties with Australia including a free-trade deal, marking a dramatic turnaround in relations which reached crisis-point this year.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Zone 3- Telescopic Analysis- Economic Crisis taking a Political Toll- Europe’s toppling Dominoes W # 90

Week # 90, Dated 17th-24th Oct. 09’

The Romanian Government lost a vote of confidence this month becoming the latest political casualty in Europe’s financial crisis. Since the beginning of this year protest rallies have riddled the continents nations, not sparing even the power houses such as Germany. The economic crisis taking its political toll on governments has however been mainly prevalent in the post Soviet east. Widely being labeled as Europe’s toppling Dominoes, following is a brief account of the regions significant developments this year.
LATVIA
After surviving a no confidence vote in early February 2009, Latvia's center-right coalition government collapsed on the 20th of Feb., with the resignation of president Valdis Zatlers at the call for his dismissal from the nation’s two largest parties (People’s Party and Union of Greens and Farmers). The government collapsed following violent demonstrations in the capital Riga, in protest at the government's handling of the crisis and steep IMF-imposed cutbacks. Latvia has had a history of revolving-door politics and complex coalitions since pulling free of the Soviet Union in 1991. But the precipitous plunge of Latvia's economy, which helped provoke the worst riot since its post

communist history played a major part in the government's downfall. Elections are expected to be held in Oct. 2010. Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an expert on the region, said Godmanis's resignation was simply "democracy in action”; "It is better to take the [economic] blow immediately, than to have a long steady slide," he added.

HUNGARY

On 21 Mar 2009 Hungary's Prime Minister resigned after facing mounting criticism over his government's handling of the country's economic crash. Ferenc Gyurcsany, leader o

f the ruling Socialists, made the unexpected announcement as his party’s popularity hit an all time low. His reputation failed to recover from a 2006 scandal where his statements regarding lying about the economy were leaked to the public and triggered massive rioting. The ‘political casualty of the economic downturn’ followed a political deadlock over how to slash public spending. The next elections are expected to be held in the spring of 2010.

CZECH REPUBLIC
On March 24th this year, four days after the collapse of the Hungarian Government, the Centre Right Czech government lost a vote of confidence, in a nation that surprisingly was perceived to be dealing well with the economic Crisis. Mr Topolanek, head of a three-party coalition government, a fractious parliament majority lost the vote following the defection of four government members as the Czech economy heads toward a recession and his spending plans were under pressure. Yet despite the succession of woes afflicting some of the EU's former

Communist states, some observers cautioned against linking the political musical chairs in Prague to a pessimistic narrative about the region. "What happened in the Czech Republic was driven by politics," said Piotr Kaczynski of the Brussels think-tank the Centre for European Policy Studies. The early elections scheduled this year have been postponed till 2010.

ROMANIA

In a latest development this month Romania joined the list of East Europe’s ‘Toppling Dominoes’, following a vote of no confidence that the centrist Government lost. While opposition parliamentarian characterize the vo

te as a ‘punishment’ for Mr. Boc’s poor stewardship of the economy, analysts said it had been at least partially motivated by the desire to dent the prospects of President Traian Basescu, a close political ally of Mr. Boc, who is favored to win a second term in the presidential election on Nov. 22.
Amidst the financial downturn in recent weeks there have been protests and strikes by railway workers as well as other public sectors, but non directly demanding this end. Presidential elections are expected at the end of this year.
UKRAINE
Amidst the financial crisis Ukraine’s political deadlock continues. The two heroes of the Orange Revolution that put Ukraine on a pro-Western course have become fierce foes ahead of the 2010 presidential vote. A bitter political rivalry between Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko drags on in a year that has witnessed some major protest rallies in the country. Ms Tymoshenko has called for all political forces to form a broad coalition, but the main opposition party and Mr. Yushchenko's allies denounce her idea as a "political confidence game." Many speculate that the nation is teetering at the brink of collapse.

ICELAND

At the beginning of the year Iceland’s Conservative government became the first in the world to fall as a direct result of the financial crisis. Iceland's centre-right government resigned in January amid mass street protests following the country's economic collapse. Mr. Haarde, the former prime minister called early parliamentary elections this year, bringing forward a vote

originally scheduled for 2011, in which Iceland's interim centre-left government won a resounding victory.

REST OF EUROPE
Waves of job protests have swept the whole of Europe since the beginning of this year. Including Germany, France, Belgium, Briton, Ireland, Spain, Russia, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey, widespread protests as well as occasional rioting has been in evidence this year. However the trend of economic upheaval perpetuating in a political collapse has been mainly observed in the east European region raising speculations about a return to authoritarian politics and a ‘New Iron Curtain’.

Discussion Questions:

· Is the impetus of changing governments in these East European Democracies depictive of :
A)- Underdeveloped institutions in nascent political systems or,
B)- Promising systems where non violent change is occurring seemingly with in the constitution?

· Given the volatile environment do you think such a change could be sustained or would it be an unbearable stress leading to a reversal to the authoritarian past?

BPM- Euro-Americas Zone

Monday, November 23, 2009

Zone 3- Telescopic Analysis- 'Middle East and Latin America- a New Proxy Field for Engagment?'- W # 92

Monday, November 16, 2009

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary Week # 92

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Zone 3- Americas, Europe and Australasia Summary Week # 91

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Zone 3- Telescopic Analysis- Economic Crisis taking a Political Toll- Europe’s toppling Dominoes W # 90

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