Friday, July 2, 2010

Zone 3- Euro-Americas Summary Week # 124

Week # 124 – Dated 13th- 19th June, 2010

WESTERN EUROPE

In Germany coalition partners are divided, resignation of top officers, the loss of a crucial regional election and the lack of foresight on how to react to recent financial crisis that gripped Europe. There is speculation that Germans are likely to go for another election less than a year after Merkel won re-election. According to a German ARD television poll a record low 86 % of Germans are dissatisfied.

During the last week, a group of experts from the IMF, the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) were in Athens to assess the recent bailout package. The review went well with satisfactory remark on Greece’s economic progress.

In France, police banned a party organised by a group who intended to serve pork and alcohol on the street where Muslims offer their Friday prayer. The police said it was tailored to offend and cause trouble, though a counterparty organised by Muslim groups was also banned.

Meanwhile Ireland has followed the track of Britain and Australia, by expelling the Israeli diplomat accused of complicty in the passport forgery used in the assasination of Hamas leader in Dubai.

The EU has added more heat to the recent sanctions placed on Iran by the UNSC. The unilateral sanction includes the prohibition of new investment, trade insurance, financial transactions, technical assistance and transfers of technologies. The sanction also affects Iran's shipping and air cargo companies, new visa bans and asset freezes imposed on Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

The Council of Europe has urged the Albanian opposition to take its case of election irregularities to court. Meanwhile as part of the prerequisites for induction in the Schengen visa liberalization scheme Albania has to ensure the repatriation of its citizens from Europe. This condition has forced Tirana to establish a special structure to deal with repatriated citizens.

Regardless of the awaited ICJ ruling on the legality of Kosovo independence, the International Steering Group (ISG) under the International Civilian Office head Pieter Feith has opined that Kosovo independence is irrevocable.

European parliament members are urging the EU to start accession talks with Skopje, due to the improvement in its reforms, though Macedonia remains entangled in the name dispute with Greece.

Effort by the Romanian government to regulate the economy by reducing deficit, slashing salaries, pensions and hiking taxes has thrown the government into hot water. Many Romanians are against the austerity measures and the cabinet now faces vote of no confidence from the opposition Social Democratic Party (PSD which it survived. Meanwhile the opposition has shown its readiness to further pursue the case in court.

According to reports Romanian deputy Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu has announced that Bucharest and Washington have begun talks on deploying elements of the proposed US missile shield in Romania.

The Macedonian government too is geared at cutting salaries of some government officials, including Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski.

Croatian labour unions are gathering signatures for a referendum for amending labour law. Laborers are wrestling with government over whether or not the union should continue with collective bargaining or individual agreement with employers.

Similarly in Serbia, Alliance of Independent Unions of Serbia President Ljubisav Orbovic has warned that the workforce situation has become critical where at least 1 million citizens are subsisting below the poverty line.

Albanian government has declared two groups, Islamic Jihad and al-Qaeda, illegal in Albania. During a meeting, the cabinet also announced a list of 62 businessmen and nine commercial companies believed to be connected with al-Qaeda and the Taleban, groups that the UN considers sponsors of terrorism.

High Representative Valentin Inzko has urged Bosnian lawmakers to adopt a law on population census, calling for a compromise so that the headcount could be conducted next year.

EULEX officials want Belgrade to take the next step in collecting information regarding the Raska mass grave, believed to contain the bodies of 250 Albanians.

The family of the fugitive Serb commander Ratko Mladic wants the government to declare Mladic dead since Mladic’s whereabouts have been unknow. The Serbian government however insists on continuing with the search.

Meanwhile Serbia has strengthens its ties with rich European countries by opening its border to citizens of EU countries and Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. Also the bloc’s foreign ministers have kicked off ratifying the bloc's Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia, two years after it was signed. Meanwhile the Kosovar government has planned not to invite Serbian president to a regional mini-summit to be held in Kosovo.

Regional and foreign observers have been closely monitoring the stance of the Bulgarian government, whether the latter will maintain undivided ties with U.S or seek an economic and energy friendship with Russia. The proposed Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline has been the cause of the unclear stance. For clarity Prime Minister Boyko Borisov holds that the government will wait for an environmental impact assessment before making a final decision on its participation in the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline.

Polls for the upcoming Polish election suggest a tight outcome between the late president's identical twin brother, Jaroslaw Kaczynski (skeptical of the benefits of adopting the Euro) and Bronislaw Komorowski, the pro-business parliament speaker with a market-friendly policy.

Poland's finance minister has made a request to International Monetary Fund for a renewal of flexible credit line of $20 billion dollars for his country. Meanwhile the UAE has becomes Poland's largest trading partner in the Arab world. A few years back Saudi Arabia occupied that position.

The outcome of the recent Slovakia election shows that despite the success of the ruling centre-left SMER-SD party, the current coalition parties will not likely be part of the team as they failed to garner sufficient votes. Hence, a centre-right government is more likely expected.

EU has approved Estonia-Eurozone membership as the 17th member, following consent among EU leaders that Estonia had met the conditions to join the Euro area.

Ukraine borrowed $2bn from Russia last week to bridge its budget deficit since talks for IMF loan are dragging. Meanwhile dependency on IMF’s loans has been articulated by Latvian President Valdis Zatlers who cautioned against excessive optimism and holds that despite the signs of recovering from deep recession; his country is still in need of international financial assistance.

Hungarian government has thrown its support for a possible change in European Union regulations on private pension fund systems. The change will help the newly formed government to significantly narrow budget deficit and lower public debt. The government is also geared at central price regulation, a reminiscent system of communist-era price controls.

The Czech Republic's nascent three-party centre-right government has agreed to expand the controversial Temelin nuclear power plant and upgrade the atomic plant in Dukovany.

Belarusian government has refused the request of Kyrgyz government to extradite deposed President Kurmanbek Bakiyev who is wanted over the charges of murder and abuse of power.

RUSSIA

Amendments to Russia’s 2010 budget have triggered concern for The International Monetary Fund (IMF). The concern could also be linked to the Russians’ plan to borrow less from foreign market in 2011.

Meanwhile joint WTO membership of Russia-Khazakistan-Belarus (RKB) may put additional obstacles for these countries, but the membership is expected to force Russia to readjust its protectionist policy.

The European Parliament has welcomed the "constructive" nature of the first EU-Russia summit since the Lisbon Treaty was approved held earlier this month.

A few weeks back, Belarus expressed its willingness to offer Russia gas pipeline passage in exchange for cheap gas. However according to recent reports Russia has given an ultimatum to Belarus to pay off its $200m gas debt.

Russian state-owned hi-tech corporation Rostekhnologii (Russian Technology) is organizing Eurosatory 2010, wherein over 30 Russian defense industry setups will be exhibiting.

A recent visit of Russian leader to Paris has spotlighted the economic concern between the the two countries. meanwhile France has signed to be part of the South Stream gas pipeline project, that will transport Russian gas to the rest of Europe.

Russian parliament has welcomed the signing of an agreement that will establish an early-warning mechanism on energy security between the EU and Russia. EU-Russia energy co-operation must be based on the principles of the Energy Charter.

The French are handing over night vision technology to Russia; as the city of Vologda in central Russia will start assembling the Thales-developed thermal imaging cameras. The local production of the camera will reduce production cost and is hoped to be affordable for civilian purposes in the future.

Russian parliament endorsed the visa-free travel regime between the EU and Russia and believes the negotiation should be based on a step-by-step approach.

Meanwhile Russia and China will be relieved from the British yearly £2.9bn bilateral aid. Britain is reviewing its policy and believes the aid should go to most needy countries.

As ethnic tension mounts in Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyz public has requested external intervention particularly from Russia, although the government is not totally consenting to such a proposal. Yet the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTOArmenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan) are contemplating offering emergency aid. Meanwhile, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warns that ethnic clashes in Kyrgyzstan could lead to Taliban-style forces taking advantage of the unrest to seize power.

The signing of 'wide range' of nuke documents between Russia and Kazakhstan is expected to move the two countries to a new level of relations and cement the new custom agreement between them.

Meanwhile Statement of Russian president that U.S should quit its Kyrgyzstan’s base once NATO-led operations end in nearby Afghanistan indicates a futurist thinking. It also shows the concern of Moscow about U.S presence in what is traditionally seen as Russia’s sphere.

While Russia might be supporting the new UNSC round of sanctions on Iran, seen as diplomatic success by the Western powers, President Medvedev has cautioned against unilateral sanctions by the United States and the EU, which according him will worsen the situation.

US/CANADA

US President Obama’s repeated visit to the Gulf of Mexico has been a show of commitment towards finding a solution. His latest visit was stepped up to reassure American consumers that seafood from the Gulf of Mexico is safe and promoting tourism in the region; meanwhile his administration is accelerating efforts for cleanup. The president has also reteirated his plea for alternative energy and less dependence on oil.

In a show of being in-charge, President Obama was able to broker an understanding with BP executive following which BP compensates all those affected by the oil spill. The oil giant is expected to create a $20 billion fund to pay damage claims to thousands of fishermen and others along the Gulf Coast. The fund will be administered by Kenneth R. Feinberg, the lawyer and mediator who ran the fund for victims of the Sept. 11 attacks.

LATIN AMERICA

In Brazil PSDB party candidate Mr. Serra and Ms. Rousseff of the Workers’ Party (PT).have been nominated formally to run for the forthcoming election.

Chavez believes Venezuela is democratic while no country is more democratic than his nation. Rejecting criticism against his government, Chavez holds that foreign support and meddling are behind the political condemnation he faces.

Argentine economy is picking up better than expected. Previous forcast of the economy puts growth at around 4.1%, but the economy is witnessing a 5.2 % growth.

Brazil’s economic clout in the region and across the globe is also on rise, yet the central bank of Brazil warns that Brazil must equip itself with improved economic institutions in order to avoid the kind of financial crisis seen in Europe. President Lula believes the forthcoming election result will not halt the country’s economy path as predicted. Meanwhile the U.S Congress is debating whether or not to continue with ethanol trade with Brazil, if the latter insist on trading its ethanol with Iran regardless of the UNSC’s sanctions.

Brazil and Peru have reached agreement which will allow Peru to provide hydroelectric power to Brazil.

As drug related money and other source of laundering get heightened, Mexican government has launched a new policy regarding money transactions through banks and limiting the amount of transaction in dollars. Meanwhile 15 federal security officers were recently ambushed at two different places, the largest attack on federal security officers since president Calderon took office. Also President Calderon has accused US government of not making enough effort to control its drug addicts who fuel the Drug supply.

Venezuelan economy remains at a stooping direction due to nationalization and lack of good performance by the major (oil) sector of the economy. Even though Caracas is now ranked as the 2nd largest reservoir of oil after Saudi Arabia, yet the nation’s oil company is reported to have shown low performance this year as compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) reports that human rights record in Venezuela is worsening due to the high rate of political crackdown on opposition candidates and ban on opposition media. President Hugo Chavez has injected a new rule into his 21st century socialism that deems alcohol consumption as anti socialist, hence Venezuelans have been told to abstain from it. §

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