BPM- Euro-Americas Zone: Zone 3- Telescopic Analysis- Economic Crisis taking a Political Toll- Europe’s toppling Dominoes W # 90

Week # 90, Dated 17th-24th Oct. 09’

The Romanian Government lost a vote of confidence this month becoming the latest political casualty in Europe’s financial crisis. Since the beginning of this year protest rallies have riddled the continents nations, not sparing even the power houses such as Germany. The economic crisis taking its political toll on governments has however been mainly prevalent in the post Soviet east. Widely being labeled as Europe’s toppling Dominoes, following is a brief account of the regions significant developments this year.
LATVIA
After surviving a no confidence vote in early February 2009, Latvia's center-right coalition government collapsed on the 20th of Feb., with the resignation of president Valdis Zatlers at the call for his dismissal from the nation’s two largest parties (People’s Party and Union of Greens and Farmers). The government collapsed following violent demonstrations in the capital Riga, in protest at the government's handling of the crisis and steep IMF-imposed cutbacks. Latvia has had a history of revolving-door politics and complex coalitions since pulling free of the Soviet Union in 1991. But the precipitous plunge of Latvia's economy, which helped provoke the worst riot since its post

communist history played a major part in the government's downfall. Elections are expected to be held in Oct. 2010. Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an expert on the region, said Godmanis's resignation was simply "democracy in action”; "It is better to take the [economic] blow immediately, than to have a long steady slide," he added.

HUNGARY

On 21 Mar 2009 Hungary's Prime Minister resigned after facing mounting criticism over his government's handling of the country's economic crash. Ferenc Gyurcsany, leader o

f the ruling Socialists, made the unexpected announcement as his party’s popularity hit an all time low. His reputation failed to recover from a 2006 scandal where his statements regarding lying about the economy were leaked to the public and triggered massive rioting. The ‘political casualty of the economic downturn’ followed a political deadlock over how to slash public spending. The next elections are expected to be held in the spring of 2010.

CZECH REPUBLIC
On March 24th this year, four days after the collapse of the Hungarian Government, the Centre Right Czech government lost a vote of confidence, in a nation that surprisingly was perceived to be dealing well with the economic Crisis. Mr Topolanek, head of a three-party coalition government, a fractious parliament majority lost the vote following the defection of four government members as the Czech economy heads toward a recession and his spending plans were under pressure. Yet despite the succession of woes afflicting some of the EU's former

Communist states, some observers cautioned against linking the political musical chairs in Prague to a pessimistic narrative about the region. "What happened in the Czech Republic was driven by politics," said Piotr Kaczynski of the Brussels think-tank the Centre for European Policy Studies. The early elections scheduled this year have been postponed till 2010.

ROMANIA

In a latest development this month Romania joined the list of East Europe’s ‘Toppling Dominoes’, following a vote of no confidence that the centrist Government lost. While opposition parliamentarian characterize the vo

te as a ‘punishment’ for Mr. Boc’s poor stewardship of the economy, analysts said it had been at least partially motivated by the desire to dent the prospects of President Traian Basescu, a close political ally of Mr. Boc, who is favored to win a second term in the presidential election on Nov. 22.
Amidst the financial downturn in recent weeks there have been protests and strikes by railway workers as well as other public sectors, but non directly demanding this end. Presidential elections are expected at the end of this year.
UKRAINE
Amidst the financial crisis Ukraine’s political deadlock continues. The two heroes of the Orange Revolution that put Ukraine on a pro-Western course have become fierce foes ahead of the 2010 presidential vote. A bitter political rivalry between Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko drags on in a year that has witnessed some major protest rallies in the country. Ms Tymoshenko has called for all political forces to form a broad coalition, but the main opposition party and Mr. Yushchenko's allies denounce her idea as a "political confidence game." Many speculate that the nation is teetering at the brink of collapse.

ICELAND

At the beginning of the year Iceland’s Conservative government became the first in the world to fall as a direct result of the financial crisis. Iceland's centre-right government resigned in January amid mass street protests following the country's economic collapse. Mr. Haarde, the former prime minister called early parliamentary elections this year, bringing forward a vote

originally scheduled for 2011, in which Iceland's interim centre-left government won a resounding victory.

REST OF EUROPE
Waves of job protests have swept the whole of Europe since the beginning of this year. Including Germany, France, Belgium, Briton, Ireland, Spain, Russia, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey, widespread protests as well as occasional rioting has been in evidence this year. However the trend of economic upheaval perpetuating in a political collapse has been mainly observed in the east European region raising speculations about a return to authoritarian politics and a ‘New Iron Curtain’.

Discussion Questions:

· Is the impetus of changing governments in these East European Democracies depictive of :
A)- Underdeveloped institutions in nascent political systems or,
B)- Promising systems where non violent change is occurring seemingly with in the constitution?

· Given the volatile environment do you think such a change could be sustained or would it be an unbearable stress leading to a reversal to the authoritarian past?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

BPM- Euro-Americas Zone

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Zone 3- Telescopic Analysis- Economic Crisis taking a Political Toll- Europe’s toppling Dominoes W # 90

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