Zone 3- Microscopic Analysis: Political Stalemate in Bosnia Herzegovina- ‘a new civil war’? Week # 88, Dated 4th-10th Oct 09’

EU and U.S have been actively involved in efforts at seeking solutions to the political paralysis in Bosnia Herzegovina amidst fears of a destabilized region triggered by a nation that is ‘falling behind’.

Most of the country's troubles stem from its ethnic divisions. The current fall out of the political parties is over constitutional changes needed for the country’s advances towards EU membership. The latest proposal on the table called for drastic changes in the Dayton peace accord that ended the 1992-995 civil war.

According to this settlement Bosnia was divided into two entities a Muslim-Croat federation and a Serb entity, Republika Srpska (RS). The entities had most state prerogatives, including their own governments, army and police. The international community, which still safeguards peace in Bosnia through the Office of High Representative (OHR), has gradually stripped the entities of some powers for the sake of strengthening central government.

The package, proposed by the US and the EU, called for a drastic revision of the Dayton peace accord in order to strengthen central government. The proposal calls for abolition of a rotating three-man state presidency, to be replaced by one president and two vice-presidents. The council of ministers would be transformed into a government which would make decisions by a simple majority vote, instead of by consensus. Further more there would be two-chambers of parliament: the Council of representatives would have 87 members and would make decisions by a simple majority vote. The House of people, representing the three ethnic groups, would have 21 members, but would serve mainly as an advisory body, without real influence on the country’s laws.

Bosnian Serb leader and RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik termed the proposal an “indecent proposal” tailored only to please the Muslim majority. While the Bosnian Croat leader Dragan Covic said the proposal was “below expectations and needs” of Croats, who would prefer their own entity. Muslim leaders Sulejman Tihic and Haris Silajdzic were only partly pleased, but said the entities should be stripped of even more power. The European Union, said Kurt Bassuener, senior associate at the Democratization Policy Council, a research and advocacy group based in the United States, is seen as “a desirable address and a deep-pockets donor — it throws money at problems — rather than a serious political actor.”

Brussels can exert huge leverage in countries that want to join the union, but not in Sarajevo. “The politicians believe that the E.U. wants them really bad, and will fudge its own criteria to bring them in,” Mr. Bassuener said. That serves local politicians who love to cite seeming progress toward joining Europe while playing to distinct ethnic groups with no interest in compromise.

There is growing concerns amongst analysts, media and other informed observers concerning the potential for a rapid deterioration of the situation in the country where some even question whether Bosnia is “on the brink of a new civil war”.

Discussion Questions:
· Do you think Bosnia Herzegovina is at the brink of ‘a new civil war’?

· Do the distinct ethnic entities in the country have the potential to gain inspiration from Kosovo and unilaterally declare independent?

· In your opinion is the European Union giving too much leverage to the country’s political leaders, hence impeding a credible environment for compromise and resolution?

Sources/Related Links:
http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Politics/?id=3.0.3897501565
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/23014/
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/world/europe/02union.html
http://www.rferl.org/content/EU_US_Announce_Emergency_Talks_With_Bosnia/1842258.html
http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Politics/?id=3.0.3854764787
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/weekinreview/06kulish.html _______________________________________________________
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